Navigating the Return to Office: Predicting Employee Response

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In a world where working from home has become the norm for millions, the sudden shift back to office life feels like turning back the clock. Big organizations like Amazon, JP Morgan, and even the U.S. federal government have started to call their employees back to the office. But here's the million-dollar question: how many will come back willingly, and how many will look for the exits?

Let's dive into this conundrum and pick up some practical advice for employers.

Understanding the Landscape

First, let's acknowledge the elephant in the room - or rather, the remote worker in their pajamas. The past few years have shown us that productivity doesn't necessarily need a cubicle to thrive. Employees have enjoyed the flexibility, the lack of commute, and the comfort of their own space. Here's how the landscape looks:

• The Enthusiasts: Some employees miss the office environment - the camaraderie, the coffee machine talks, and the structured work-life balance. They might be keen to return.
• The Reluctants: On the other side, you have those who've settled into remote work like cats into a warm lap. They've optimized their life around this new normal, and going back feels like a step backward.
• The Indifferent: There's a chunk in the middle who might go either way, depending on how it's pitched to them.

Gauging the Response

To estimate how your workforce might react to a return-to-office (RTO) mandate, here’s a strategic approach:

Anonymous Surveys:

• What to Ask: Gauge preferences with questions like, "How would you feel about returning to the office full-time?" or "What would make you more inclined to return to office work?"
• Analysis: Look for patterns in responses. If a significant portion mentions flexibility or remote work benefits, you might expect pushback.

Surveys from companies like Gartner have shown that high performers and certain demographics (like millennials and women) might be more resistant to RTO mandates.

Focus Groups:

• Varied Representation: Include a mix of job roles, seniority levels, and those with different life circumstances (e.g., parents, caregivers).
• Deep Dive: Here, you can get qualitative data on why people might or might not want to return, which can help tailor your strategy or even the mandate itself.

Historical Data Review:

Turnover Trends: Look at past data. Did you lose people when you had a less flexible policy? Companies like Amazon have seen significant employee dissatisfaction and job searches following RTO announcements.

• Engagement Scores: High engagement might suggest a workforce more willing to adapt, while low engagement could predict resistance.

Pilot Programs:

• Test the Waters: Implement a trial period where certain teams come back to the office part-time. Monitor productivity, morale, and feedback.
• Feedback Loop: Use this data to adjust your approach. For instance, Pinterest saw a surge in applications when they offered flexibility, hinting at where employee preferences might lie.

External Benchmarking:

• Industry Peers: Look at what similar companies are experiencing. For example, the federal government's buyout offer gives a hint that they expect some resistance.
• Market Trends: Data from sources like the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or Revelio Labs indicate slower workforce growth with strict RTO policies.

Crafting Your Strategy

• Flexibility: Offer hybrid options. The data suggests that a forced full return might lead to higher turnover, especially among key demographics.
• Incentives: What can you offer? Better office space, perks, or perhaps even financial incentives like covering commute costs?
• Communication: Be clear about why you want people back in the office. If it’s about culture or collaboration, make that case compelling.
• Exit Strategies: If you're like the federal government, offering buyouts might be a way to soften the blow for those who can't or won't return.
• Prepare for Attrition: Understand that some might leave. Plan your recruitment strategy to replace or manage without those who depart.

The Numbers Game

Estimating the exact numbers can be tricky, but here's a rough guide:

• Favorable Response: Look at your survey results. If 60% show positive or neutral sentiment, you might expect around that percentage to return without major issues, assuming you handle the transition well.
• Unfavorable Response: If 30% express strong discontent, prepare for potential turnover in that range or higher, especially if your policy is inflexible.
• The Undecided: The remaining might need more convincing or better incentives. They're your swing voters.

Wrapping it Up

The return to office isn't just about logistics; it's about understanding and managing human emotions, adapting to new norms, and ensuring your company remains an attractive place to work. By using these strategies, you can not only predict the response but also shape it in a way that benefits both the organization and its employees. Remember, in today's world, flexibility might just be the key to keeping your workforce happy and whole.

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Tresha Moreland

Tresha Moreland is a 30-year organizational effectiveness and strategic workforce planning expert. She partners with business leaders to develop workplace strategies that achieve best-in-class results. She has held key organizational leadership roles in multiple industries such as manufacturing, distribution, retail, hospitality, and healthcare. Tresha is the founder and principal consultant of HR C-Suite, LLC (www.hrcsuite.com). HR C-Suite is a results-based HR strategy resource dedicated to connecting HR with business results. She has received a master’s degree in human resource management (MS) and a master’s degree in business administration (MBA). She has also earned a Senior Professional in Human Resources (SPHR), Six Sigma Black Belt Professional (SSBBP) Certification. She is also recognized as a Fellow with the American College Healthcare Executives with a FACHE designation.