One of the most concerning byproducts of the COVID-19 pandemic is the drastic drop in preventative healthcare visits at the height of the crisis in April. The data is in — and it’s even more concerning than we could have predicted. According to the data on over 2,500 organizations in our platform, mammography rates diminished by almost 90% in April 2019 compared with the previous year — and colonoscopies decreased by almost 95%. On top of that, immunizations for measles, mumps, and rubella were about 34% lower than in April 2019, and year-over-year rates for meningococcal immunization were diminished by 73%.
Given the importance of early detection and proactive health management, these delays in preventative care are incredibly concerning. When people don’t take the proper preventative steps, they are at higher risk for contracting these deadly diseases, or may miss the opportunity to catch cancer in its earliest stages. As people resume their regular health activities, employers may see a spike in diagnoses. The absence of relevant data in many organizations right now is likely causing this potentially dangerous and costly trend to go unnoticed.
However, while the decrease in preventative care is an important trend to follow, it isn’t the only trend to guide your decision-making for 2021. Our health data scientists have discovered numerous “micro-trends” that we need to understand to effectively plan your benefits strategy, interventions, and wellness initiatives. Let’s take a look at the data for a few other areas.
Elective surgeries
Both inpatient and outpatient surgeries have declined. According to a report from Strata Decision Technology on year-over-year changes to hospital revenue during late March to early April, there was a 99% drop in primary knee replacements, an 81% drop in lumbar/thoracic spinal fusions, and a 79% drop in primary hip replacements. While some procedures may be canceled altogether, there will likely be significant delays in rescheduling procedures and renewed postponement where COVID-19 case numbers are still high. Therefore, it’s probable that the year-end impact will be an overall decrease in elective procedures in 2020 as compared with prior years — with the magnitude of the reduction likely varying by geographic area.
Mental health
Mental health is a common and costly concern for employers. It’s no surprise that employees' mental health needs have gone up since the start of the pandemic. A recent survey from Ginger indicated that employees' stress levels are at an all-time high: 88% of survey participants reported moderate to extreme stress. An alarming 70% of respondents claimed this pandemic is the most stressful time of their entire professional careers. With this new normal, employers will need to take into account the demand and costs for these services compared with previous years and come up with a new approach to employee care.
Cancer care
Our data shows that radiation therapy rates experienced a reduction of about 7% in April and about 13% in May compared with the prior year. Radiation and chemotherapy, which also experienced a decline, are essential. By looking at micro-trends we can see that these therapies have been impacted less than other healthcare services, but will still need to be watched as a potential downstream issue. This illustrates why looking at micro-trends is essential in evaluating COVID-19 impact. As the pandemic continues, it will be important to watch your data for any changes to cancer care.
Acute and chronic care
The COVID-19 crisis has also caused an increase in gaps in care related to chronic conditions, meaning instances where people aren’t adhering to their normal routine of medications, physician visits, or regular tests and screenings. Data gathered from our platform in April of 2020 shows that rates of glucose testing were down more than 56% compared with April 2019.
There were also drops in care for acute conditions as well. ER visits for chest pain were 35% lower than in April 2019, while abdominal pain visits were about 47% lower. Rates for these types of healthcare visits also remained lower in June compared with last year, suggesting that there is still reluctance to seek care for acute conditions in the ER.
The impact on your business
This decrease in essential healthcare services will impact your business moving forward. It will likely lead to a future uptick in demand for care, and it may impact the healthcare system’s ability to keep up.
If you combine this information with other micro-trends — such as population segments with high risk for COVID-19 or the potential for disruption in claim payment cycles — you can see just how drastically different this new normal really is.
With the unpredictable nature of the pandemic and the healthcare system, monitoring these micro-trends will help determine how HR and benefits leaders will plan for the future. And although it won’t be easy, using your data to work through the uncertainty one trend at a time will make it possible.
